A Hawkes Process Demonstration

The new paradigm shift to social media has created an emerging business demand. Whether for non-profit community engagement or for lucrative business model purposes, social media platforms can find great value in incorporating "intelligent" features that will increase its users' participation and collaboration.

The Hawkes Process model has been employed to predict the location, intervals, and magnitude of earthquake after shocks by exploiting the dynamic temporal point patterns from previous earthquakes.

Similarly this app demonstrates how the "Marked Hawkes Process" model can be employed in the social media domain. By fitting the model with a sample set of data from a public diabetes forum we can exploit the dynamic temporal point patterns from forum user interactions. The model's conditional intensity function takes the history of each forum user's time-based qualitative and quantitative activity patterns, and makes 'intelligent" recommendations to them for forum posts they may be interested in by other users.