Recession Probability

This app pulls the current 3-month and 10-year treasury bond rates from the treasury.gov website and uses them to calculate an estimate of the chance of a recession occurring in the next year. It turns out that this relatively simple measure significantly outperforms most other analyses at predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead.
This app also features a display of the current yield curve, a graph of bond yields against bond terms. An upward sloping yield curve is an indicates a normal economy; a flat or downward sloping yield curve foretells a recession.