Bayes Rule Calculations

This application helps use Bayes' Rule to compute the probability P(H|B+E) that a hypothesis H is true given background information B and new evidence E. You need to know (1) P(H|B), the "prior" probability of H given B; (2) P(E|B+H), the probability of E given B and H; and (3) P(E|B-H), the probability of E given B and not H. If you can only guess these values, the "Range" tab allows you to give minimum and maximum values for each quantity. In return, it gives the minimum and maximum values of P(H|B+E).

This app is based on Richard Carrier's discussion at http://www.richardcarrier.info/CarrierDec08.pdf. However, the author is not affiliated with Dr. Carrier.